A recent scenario analysis by tourism intelligence platform DataGreat has shed light on how a potential new disruption to Russian outbound tourism could transform travel patterns in Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. Utilizing their Crisis Impact Simulator and the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, DataGreat explores the impacts of such a shock on tourism markets.
The initial shock to Russian outbound travel resulted from the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This event, coupled with ensuing sanctions, airspace restrictions, and disruptions in payment systems, significantly redirected Russian tourists away from EU destinations. Countries such as Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt became the primary recipients of these travelers. Consequently, EU destinations that previously enjoyed substantial Russian tourist numbers experienced declines exceeding seventy percent since 2022.
DataGreat’s new analysis contemplates a further reduction in Russian outbound travel, driven by factors like stricter sanctions, constraints on payment systems, ruble devaluation, or further closures of indirect travel routes. The Crisis Impact Simulator models scenarios involving a 20 to 35 percent decrease in Russian tourists to specific destinations over a year. It categorizes the exposure into three groups: EU destinations with remaining Russian tourist presence, Mediterranean locations reliant on package holidays and charter flights, and markets like Türkiye, where the focus is on whether alternative source markets can compensate for the potential decline in Russian visitors.
Particular vulnerabilities would affect charter-dependent package operators, coastal resorts operating outside peak seasons, and destination management companies heavily reliant on Russian-speaking tour groups. These vulnerabilities are calculated based on inbound share data, while an AI layer provides a narrative context for the figures. The analysis suggests potential mitigation strategies, such as diversifying source markets to include Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products to attract European tourists, and employing currency-hedging strategies for businesses dealing significantly in rubles.
Complementing the Crisis Impact Simulator, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools enable analysts to transition from identifying vulnerable destinations to understanding detailed impacts of specific shocks by segment. Destination-specific insights from the simulator will be released by DataGreat progressively through 2026. The platform, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, offers a comprehensive suite of products based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset.
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